I have been thinking a lot about how should I go about my portfolio which is tightly correlated to net wealth. Before even creating Generalist Lab I asked one blogger about aftermath, any downsides of publicizing one’s net wealth. He encouraged me not to be afraid and said he saw no drawbacks. Ehm, I don’t know. If Bitcoin shoots another x10 over next few years, some haters might call on local tax collecting agency. You think this is funny? Which part exactly? Eastern Europeans hate to see their neighbors doing better than them, at least the older ones. So I might take some more time to map out more possible outcomes of upcoming decision.
So I’ve been postponing to share my insights and actions in the market, although tracking market’s and news is a big part of my life. So let’s make a small step forward.
Looking back at most of my orders I see a pattern. Either I take a pole position before the “race begins” or I wait around for a flat in short-term (1-3 weeks) before continuing on a more gradual trend. I (almost?) never participate in herd madness. I rarely buy at market price. I like bidding at lower levels, thinking “part of profit is made during a purchase”. Bargain thinking. Unless I am driven by FOMO, which has happened in the past.
Adding more SAF Tehnika to Portfolio
So for a week now I have been hunting SAF1R at 6.45. Part of order was executed last Wednesday, and today it was fully completed due to pressure taking profits.
2016.05.12 marked another buy. A good call in retrospect.
Reasoning behind adding “at the top”
I don’t want to go into all fundamentals now, but in short:
SAF Tehnika ttm ratios for latest reports, calculated at second entry price (6.45) are as follows:
- EV/EBITDA: 5.25;
- P/tBV (price to tangible book value): 1.61;
- P/E: 11.05
Besides that, company has next to nothing of financial debt and is breaking its records in sales (SAF Tehnika FY starts at July 1):
Company’s strategy in US market seems to be sustainable and management is humbly optimistic.
Take profit level
SAF Tehnika likes to share dividends, which we always appreciate in the market. I expect 0,55-0,65 euro dividends per share, which range from 8,53 to 10.08% gross yield at today’s close price (6.45). If nothing particularly tragic occurs in international markets I expect SAF1R to reach a local top at 7.1-7.2 euros per share over the next 3-4 months.
Decision whether to take dividends and hold SAF Tehnika in portfolio longer will be determined based primarily on market sentiment and Q1 results.